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HITECH PARADE MONTHLY
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WHAT IS THE MOST INEVITABLE STRATEGIC CHALLENGE FOR THE UAE? Strategic issue essay 1. Review of strategic threats to the UAE National Values 1.1. Political Homeland political stability depends greatly from multiple combined outrunning steps of UAE government bodies on further economic, social and cultural growth of the nation and its each citizen. The ISIS terrorist attacks, Iraqi and Syrian events - with many thousand victims, huge refugee migrations - are really new challenges for all mankind and they should be properly counterworked by all UAE bodies. Another external danger is the Iran’s expansionist regional strategy. On 25th September 2016, Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan pointed the UN General Assembly’s annual ministerial meeting on Iran's "flagrant violations of the principles of sovereignty and constant interference in the internal affairs of its neighboring countries." Iran has been backing Bashar Assad, Syrian President and Shiite Houthi rebels in Yemen, and the UAE minister said its interference in Iraq's internal affairs "has exacerbated ... division among its people." Various diplomatic and other engines should be geared to enhance peaceful relations with other nations and solving international conflicts. The UAE developed Grand Security Strategy based on the dual concepts of military jointness and broad co-operation among all national, regional, and international components involved in national and regional security. At the international level, the UAE should enhance cooperation with its allies, particularly the United States, to support national and regional collective Gulf security. 1.2. Economic strategic threats Global trends on decreasing oil prices and enlarging role of alternate energy sources was providently predicted by UAE analysts decades ago, and the nation continues its economic growth of all sectors except oil. While in 2012 the non-oil percentage in GDP totalled 3.2%, its target for 2021 is 5%. The UAE strategic economic indicators
1.3. Criminal threats "The UAE had one of the lowest levels of violent crime in the world. 86.5 % of people in UAE are satisfied with their security in the country, in the daytime, while the satisfaction rate is 84.5 % at night," - UAE Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Interior, Shaikh Saif said. 1.4. Threats of infectious diseases The high inward migration of expatriate workers and transient influx of tourists from all over the world make infectious diseases an important area for public health in the UAE. Notwithstanding, communicable diseases were not included in the top four public health priority areas, as the UAE is considered a high-income country that is regarded to have passed through the epidemiologic transition. One of the major public health achievements in the UAE is the success rate of the national immunisation program for children under the age of 5 years. Due to the high insight of immunisation, the rates of childhood communicable diseases in the UAE are very low. All expatriate workers seeking employment in the UAE are screened for communicable diseases, such as human immunodeficiency virus (by serology) and tuberculosis (by chest X-ray) , before acquiring residence status. 1.5. Technological threats The UAE is an extremely connected society, and the internet has become a very important medium for connecting the Government to the people and businesses. "The UAE's computer emergency response team was able to address and minimise the impact of cyber crimes and attacks. Its forensics capability came to fruition, which means its capability to extract information and data from computers to serve as digital evidence. So the UAE has given cyber security a high priority to protect its critical national infrastructure," said Matthew Cochran, chairman of the Defence Services Marketing Council in Abu Dhabi. 1.6. Environmental risks Although the UAE represents a unique example in terms of environmental preservation and protection, there are some external issues that largely arise environmental hazards to the UAE National Values. The most discussed of them are: the emission of greenhouse gases the global warming. 1.6.1. Carbon emissions Hassan Radhi wrote in his article: "Investigating cooling residential buildings shows that global warming is likely to increase the energy used by 23.5% if temperature warms by 5.9 °C. The net CO2 emissions could increase at around 5.4% over the next few decades.” This year, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company announced the Al Reyadah project, which is designed to capture CO2 from industrial areas and reinject it in onshore fields, increasing production while decreasing carbon emissions. Moreover, strict regulations have been approved to limit the burning off of associated gas, or flaring, which has been a regular practice and, over time, a growing issue for the industry in many regions of the world. Recent studies assess, around the globe, gas flared at oil production sites amounts to about 13.7 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas, generating the equivalent CO2 emissions produced by 175,000 cars into the atmosphere per day. Reducing CO2 emissions through the restriction of such gas flaring offers a rather fast and brave step towards achieving a cleaner, sustainable environment. This month, diplomats from 196 nations had 12-day talks in Morocco to flesh out the planet-saving plan inked in Paris last December. It was announced that only half of all nations had already ratified the Paris Agreement. The talks included how to measure and track each nation’s carbon emissions; disbursing hundreds of billions of dollars in financing in a way that reassures both rich and recipient nations; and setting criteria for compensating poor countries devastated by climate-fuelled storms, droughts or floods. 2018 is also the next high-stakes meeting when nations can narrow the so-called "emissions gap" between their carbon-cutting pledges and the level of reductions needed to prevent dangerous levels of warming. The gap is still huge, and getting bigger every year. 1.6.2. Global Warming On current trends, the Earth will heat up about 3°C above the pre-industrial era benchmark. According to scientists, that is a sure recipe for climate catastrophe. Calls for capping global warming at under 2.0°C, and even 1.5°C if possible (via planet-saving plan signed in Paris last December) look like a hugely daunting challenge. The main reason of acceleration in the temperature growth is assumed the greenhouse gas pollutions that ruin the ozone layers of our planet’s atmosphere. 1.6.3. Antarctic ice melting Almost a decade ago scientists finally concluded that Antarctic ice sheets had passed a point of unstoppable collapse. The implications go beyond the sea level rise itself. If the scientists are right, the disappearance of the Antarctic ice is the first major irreversible change on the face of the Earth that is wrought by human-caused climate change. Even if the mankind ceases the emission of heat-trapping gases in the near future, the warm waters have advanced far enough to continue eating away at the ice sheet. They are not the most likely and predictable changes, costing a few per cent of global economic growth, that should worry us about climate change – it is catastrophic shifts, unlikely but, should they occur, devastating to civilisation. It means that the the UAE have to plan for rising seas over the long term. Abu Dhabi and Dubai have large areas of valuable property close to sea level: the Abu Dhabi Corniche, Jebel Ali port, oil platforms, pipeline landings and desalination plants etcetera. 2. Counterwork to sea-level rising 2.1. Analysis of roots It should be stated, that the most popular version of CO2 emission - as the origin of global warming & ice melting - is not yet properly proved. Some scientists argue that - on the contrary - the global warming itself causes the increase of evaporating CO2 out of the warming oceans, while the real reasons of the global warming are not yet disclosed. The alternatives could be either external - a growth of solar activity or internal - a higher volcanic intensity, for example. Whatever the genuine reason is, the sea-level rising is inevitable. 2.2. Dutch experience of conquering sea floods In the Golden Age of the 17th-century Dutch Republic, Dutchmen started to build systems of dikes to protect their fertile lands from sea floods. At the moment, 40% of the Netherlands lay below the North Sea level, some lands are placed 5-6 meters lower. This method was also utilized in many European, American and Asian coastal regions. It seems that the Dutch experience should be thoroughly investigated to be used in the UAE. 2.3. BIOROCK technology There were multiple attempts worldwide to build sea walls out of concrete, steel, coral rubble or sand bags. But these materials soon rust, corrode, collapse and need to be rebuilt. In contrast, only breakwaters and reefs made of mineral accretion can provide permanent, cost-effective protection able of keeping pace with rising global sea levels. In 1979, German professor Wolf Hilbertz patented excellent BIOROCK technology on growing coral reefs fivefold faster than usually. This is the only known technology that can sustain and grow natural coral species using only basic conducting elements, typically of a common steel. Almost hundred such new reef projects were already embodied in more than 20 countries. Applying a low voltage electric current to a submerged conductive structure causes dissolved minerals in seawater, principally calcium, magnesium and bicarbonate to precipitate and adhere to that structure. The low voltage is completely safe for swimmers and marine life. BIOROCK samples range in compressive strength from 26 to 37 MPa - for comparison, the concrete typically used in sidewalks has a strength of about 24 MPa. Biorock projects usually utilize solar, wind or wave power, which do not produce CO2. The issue should be in-depth researched for possible usage as the basis of dikes, protecting the UAE coastline lower lands. Coral fishes and other inhabitants of reefs will also be a subject of special interest for divers and can furthermore enlarge the tourist attractiveness of the region. Summary In this paper multiple nationally strategic threats were reviewed and analyzed. Being one of the most innovative states in the world the UAE have already predicted most of them and have been providing the long-term programs to resist their dangerous impacts. Especially fruitful such efforts are for cases which can be solved by the nation itself. When there is a need to co-operate with other countries (not always allies) the progress is usually slower. Finally, the most ungovernable problem appeared the issue that is the answer to the title of this paper - the unstoppable global warming and its aftermath - the sea-level rising that can lead to flooding the most prosperous coastal smart-regions of the UAE. In this essay it was proposed to analyze such key approaches that can solve the threats of sea-level rising: - the innovative experiences of medieval Dutch engineers on building dike systems - recent German BIOROCK technology on creating coastal dikes on basis of man-made coral reefs. Both ideas can be in-depth examined by theoreticians and practicians. In case of their advisability they should be embodied via dike engineering solutions, without forcing population and industries to leave the coastal lands and move to inland settlements. As the sea-level rising danger is not the problem that is vital for the UAE exclusively, these investigations and technological elaborations can be funded internationally: by all nations having low coastlines. November 2016
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